WEATHER PHENOMENA

Some seismicity may be affected by weather due to wind, tidal surge and air pressure systems effects of  the continental mass compared with adjoining plate masses. During the tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere we keep an eye on tropical storms which may affect seismicity according to our models.  Currently the following tropical storms appear to have potential to affect seismicity in the coming week:

No Tropical cyclones are currently active

TIDAL EFFECTS ON SEISMICITY

The full moon arrived on April 23, 2024 at 23:49 UT.  Longitudes which are at local solar midnight at this time are located at about 5 East while those at local solar noon are near 175 West. In the east these include most of western Europe and Iceland while in the west areas of the western Aleutians, Alaska, Hawaii, Tonga/Fiji/Kermadec Islands, New Zealand to the Balleny Islands and portions of the Pacific-Antarctic Ridge are included. These are the most likely areas to see significant tidal triggering with this full moon. Other areas may also see tidal promotion in the next week especially at times of large solar flares and near local solar midnight and solar noon. The likelihood of a strong associated earthquake with this full moon are moderate to high.

April 25, 2024 is the sixteenth day after the beginning of the new lunar month.  Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Kermadec MB>=4.0 14 2.0 0.05

Nevada MB>=2.0 22 3.3 0.01

Spain MB>=4.0 35 2.5 0.03

Puerto Rico MB>=4.0 18 2.0 0.05

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

So.California MB>=0.0 -8 -2.1 0.05