STRONG X2.7 SOLAR FLARE COULD AFFECT SEISMICITY

 

EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY FOR MAY  5, 2015

 

An X2.7 class solar flare (#6270) peaked at about 2211 on May 5. This could trigger some seismicity in the regions of Hawaii and Alaska which were at local solar noon at the time of the flare with Hawaii nearly at the sub-solar point. Longitudes at solar midnight when this flare occurred are around 25 East and include much of Europe. The only other X-class flare to occur during the year 2016 was an X2.1 on March 11, 2015. The last flare of higher class than today's X3 was  an X4.9 (#700) on February 25, 2014, the only such event in the past year and a half. While this was a quick flare Solar Flare effects (SFE) could still be important especially in several days if a CME reaches the terrestrial vicinity. A global seismic watch is likely to be called for the period May 7-11 should this occur.

 

The immediate effects of this flare appear to have been the triggering of a moderate earthquake in Argentina at deep focus with M 4.5 within about two minutes of the peak of the flare. An earthquake of M 2.7 in Oklahoma occurred simultaneous with the beginning of the flare and several light earthquakes in the Dodecanese Islands and an M 2.9 in Southern Idaho coincided with the end of the flare. The earthquakes in Greece were followed several hours later by an M 4.6 in Crete, Greece. Hawaii also saw an M 2.7, the largest of the day in that area several hours after the flare. This pattern generally suggests SFE triggering.

 

EMSC reported an earthquake of M 4.6 in Crete, Greece was felt with intensity II-III in the area(s) of Iraklio and Heraklion, Greece.

 

Seismicity in New Britain continued at high aftershocks rates today. The strongest aftershock of the earlier M 7.5 was an M 5.9 but as many as eight of M>=5 were located. This activity is expected to continue for several days.

Forecast 88612 had expected this activity was likely around May 5 within about 25 km of the aftershocks.

 

NEIC reported these earthquakes of M 5.0-5.9 in New Britain was felt with intensity II-III in the area(s) of Kimbe, New Britain, PNG.

 

O: 05MAY2015 15:07:49   4.9S  151.4E mb=4.6  ANSS   Kokopo Papua New Guinea

O: 05MAY2015 16:39:44   5.1S  151.6E mb=4.7  ANSS   Kokopo Papua New Guinea

O: 05MAY2015 05:03:01   5.1S  152.4E mb=5.2  ANSS   Kokopo Papua New Guinea

O: 05MAY2015 01:54:05   5.3S  152.0E mb=5.9  ANSS   Kokopo Papua New Guinea

O: 05MAY2015 01:58:20   5.3S  152.2E mb=5.6  ANSS   Kokopo Papua New Guinea

O: 05MAY2015 17:28:56   5.3S  152.4E mb=4.7  ANSS   Kokopo Papua New Guinea

O: 06MAY2015 01:52:50   5.3S  152.8E mb=4.6  ANSS   Taron Papua New Guinea

O: 05MAY2015 02:40:23   5.4S  152.0E mb=5.2  ANSS   Kokopo Papua New Guinea

O: 05MAY2015 06:11:04   5.5S  152.1E mb=4.9  ANSS   Kokopo Papua New Guinea

O: 05MAY2015 08:16:58   5.5S  152.2E mb=5.3  ANSS   Kokopo Papua New Guinea

O: 05MAY2015 17:28:16   5.5S  152.3E mb=4.5  ANSS   Kokopo Papua New Guinea

O: 05MAY2015 03:55:51   5.5S  152.3E mb=5.2  ANSS   Kokopo Papua New Guinea

O: 05MAY2015 20:39:48   5.6S  152.0E mb=5.0  ANSS   Kokopo Papua New Guinea

O: 05MAY2015 05:07:29   5.6S  152.5E mb=4.9  ANSS   Taron Papua New Guinea

O: 06MAY2015 03:17:16   5.6S  152.6E mb=5.4  ANSS   Taron Papua New Guinea

O: 05MAY2015 21:13:27   5.7S  152.2E mb=4.8  ANSS   Kokopo Papua New Guinea

O: 05MAY2015 08:47:08   5.7S  152.3E mb=5.0  ANSS   Kokopo Papua New Guinea

O: 05MAY2015 02:33:39   5.7S  152.8E mb=4.4  ANSS   Taron Papua New Guinea

O:  5MAY2015 21:19:31   5.7S  153.1E mb=4.8  ANSS   Taron Papua New Guinea       

P:  5MAY2015 88612      6.0S  153.0E 4.0-6.6 AAAAA  New Britain                

 

The activity in New Britain can be considered Far Field Aftershocks (FFA) from the great M 7.8 in Nepal of April 25 as it occurred at the fifth node (72 degrees) from that earthquake. The death toll from that event reached more than 7200 today and aid continues to be out of reach to many. A series of smaller events continued at 103-106 degrees from Nepal where seismic energy is concentrated by reflection and refraction off the core-mantle boundary. Seismicity is often seen to be enhanced in this distance zone following large earthquakes. Earthquakes in this distance zone from Nepal today included those in Hawaii, Yellowstone, South Island, New Zealand (4.0, 4.1); off northern California; Fiji/Tonga (M 4.6, 4.7); Challis, Idaho (M 2.9); and in Oregon. Many of the strong earthquakes in the past 10 days following the Nepal quake have occurred in this distance range from Nepal.

 

 

The strongest earthquake today outside the region of New Britain occurred in  the Mid-Indian Ridge with M 5.3 following an M 5.0 foreshock. The timing and location of these two earthquakes suggests tidal triggering. They occurred

within minutes of local solar midnight, a prime time for tidal stresses. Forecast 88821 had expected this activity within about 50 km of this epicenter was likely around May 5. The tidal forecast had noted in this regard:

 

 

O:  5MAY2015 20:01:15  15.4S   67.1E mb=5.0  ANSS   Mid-Indian Ridge"            

O:  5MAY2015 20:53:23  15.4S   67.2E mb=5.3  ANSS   Mid-Indian Ridge"            

P:  5MAY2015 88821     15.0S   67.0E 4.0-5.6 AAAAA  So. Indian Ocean           

 

The most unusual earthquake of the day was widely felt in Thailand near Phuket.

While small and without reported damages or casualties, this event was widely reported felt. The last earthquake of M>=4.3 in this region of Tailand near

Phlu Nai occurred as an M 4.5 on September 6, 2005, the only such event within 200 km of this epicenter of this size in the past 25 years. Forecast 88601 expected regional activity southwest of this was likely in late April or early May.

 

EMSC reported this earthquake of M 4.3 in the Malay Peninsula, Thailand was felt with intensity II-III in the epicentral area. NEIC reported intensity II-III in Thailand at Krabi, Phuket and Kathu.

 

O:  5MAY2015 21:18:07   7.8N   98.7E mb=4.3  ANSS   Phlu Nai (1) Thailand        

P: 27APR2015 88601      5.0N   97.0E 4.0-5.6 CCBAA  Nicobar Islands            

OTHER GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITY

 

For most events there are two listings. The first line is the observed event starting with "O:" for Observed. There follows the date, month and year, the time in UT hours:minutes:seconds, the latitude and longitude, the given magnitude and the reporting agency followed by the geographic location. The second line starts with "P:" This is the forecast event as forecast in our summaries normally more than a month in advance. Magnitudes may vary in response to updated seismic watches and daily variations due to tidal and other influences. This line has the forecast date, month and year, the forecast number, latitude, longitude and forecast magnitude range.  This is followed by a comparison between the forecast and the event. The comparison includes letters A-D. The first is number of days difference from predicted (A:up to 2, B3-5; C:6-10; D:more than 10), Difference in latitude (A:up to 1 degree; B:1-2 degrees; C:2-4 degrees; D:more than 4 degrees); longitude (same comparison as with latitude); magnitude (A: within forecast range; B: higher than forecast range; C: lower than forecast range; D: no comparison possible). The last letter is a stand in for a future comparison which needs to be done statistically after a large number of forecasts have been made. In previous data, an excellent match is generally AAAAA; a good match as one or two B's; a fair match has several B's and C's and a poor match is one which contains a number of C's or D's. 

 

ASIA

 

O:  5MAY2015 21:28:31  35.3N   58.5E mb=5.0  ANSS   NNE of Kashmar Iran          

P: 28APR2015 88711     37.0N   59.0E 3.8-5.7 CBAAA  No. Iran                   

 

EMSC reported this earthquake of M 5.0 in northeastern Iran was felt with intensity II-III in the area(s) of Torbat Heydariyeh, Iran.

NEIC reported intensity II-III in Meshed and Taibad, Khorasan-e Razawi, Iran.

 

INDONESIA AND PHILIPPINES

 

Phivolcs reported an earthquake of M 4.1 in Central Philippines was felt with intensity II in the area(s) of Lignon Hill, Legaspi City and I in Brgy. Cabid-an, Sorsogon City, Philippines.

 

O:  5MAY2015 23:45:53   4.5N  125.3E mb=4.4  ANSS   S of Sarangani Philippines   

P:  3MAY2015 88599      4.0N  125.0E 4.0-5.4 AAAAA  Mindanao, Philippines      

 

O:  5MAY2015 21:18:07   7.8N   98.7E mb=4.3  ANSS   Phlu Nai (1) Thailand        

P: 27APR2015 88601      5.0N   97.0E 4.0-5.6 CCBAA  Nicobar Islands            

 

CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA

 

O:  5MAY2015 03:40:30  18.6N   64.0W Md=3.1  ANSS   Town British Virgin Islands  

P:  4MAY2015 88642     18.0N   64.0W 3.0-5.0 AAAAA  Leeward Islands            

 

O:  5MAY2015 18:22:25  19.2N   66.4W Md=3.0  ANSS   Brenas Puerto Rico           

P:  4MAY2015 88660     20.0N   66.0W 3.0-4.4 AAAAA  Bahamas/No. Caribbean      

 

O:  5MAY2015 07:20:40  15.1N   92.1W ML=3.6  UNAM   NORESTE de CACAHOATAN, CHIS  

O:  5MAY2015 11:32:21  14.2N   92.2W ML=3.9  UNAM   SUR de CD HIDALGO, CHIS      

O:  5MAY2015 00:29:56  14.7N   92.5W ML=3.5  UNAM   SUROESTE de TAPACHULA, CHIS  

O:  4MAY2015 23:33:13  15.9N   92.6W ML=4.9  UNAM   SUR de VENUSTIANO CARRANZA, CH

P:  5MAY2015 88638     15.0N   92.0W 3.5-5.2 AAAAA  Guatemala                  

 

 

O:  4MAY2015 15:42:36  14.8N   93.3W ML=3.4  UNAM   SUROESTE de MAPASTEPEC, CHIS 

O:  4MAY2015 18:55:40  15.5N   93.8W ML=3.5  UNAM   SUR de TONALA, CHIS          

O:  5MAY2015 00:11:04  15.7N   93.9W ML=3.8  UNAM   SUROESTE de TONALA, CHIS     

P:  6MAY2015 88907     16.0N   93.0W 3.5-5.1 AAAAA  Chiapas, Mexico            

 

O:  5MAY2015 06:25:36  17.4N   94.7W ML=4.0  UNAM   SURESTE de SAYULA DE ALEMAN, V

O:  4MAY2015 16:08:04  17.6N   94.8W ML=3.6  UNAM   SURESTE de SAYULA DE ALEMAN, V

O:  4MAY2015 15:43:47  15.4N   94.8W ML=3.9  UNAM    SURESTE de SALINA CRUZ, OAX 

P:  5MAY2015 88633     17.0N   95.0W 3.5-5.1 ABAAA  Chiapas, Mexico            

 

O:  5MAY2015 16:14:16  15.8N   96.8W ML=4.3  UNAM   OESTE de S PEDRO POCHUTLA, OAX

P:  9MAY2015 88927     17.0N   96.0W 3.5-5.1 BBAAA  Oaxaca, Mexico             

 

O:  4MAY2015 22:49:25  16.2N   98.1W ML=3.6  UNAM   SUR de PINOTEPA NACIONAL, OAX

O:  5MAY2015 05:27:19  16.1N   98.6W ML=3.8  UNAM   SUROESTE de PINOTEPA NACIONAL,

P:  4MAY2015 88654     17.0N   98.0W 3.5-5.1 AAAAA  Oaxaca, Mexico             

 

O:  4MAY2015 21:24:35  18.4N  101.1W ML=3.7  UNAM   SUROESTE de HUETAMO, MICH    

P:  2MAY2015 88647     18.0N  102.0W 3.5-5.4 AAAAA  Michoacan, Mexico          

 

O:  4MAY2015 15:38:29  17.8N  103.3W ML=3.2  UNAM    OESTE de LA MIRA, MICH      

P:  5MAY2015 88647     18.0N  103.0W 3.5-5.2 AAAAA  Michoacan, Mexico          

 

O:  5MAY2015 14:46:34  24.8N  109.3W ML=4.2  UNAM    SUROESTE de LOS MOCHIS, SIN 

P: 10MAY2015 88936     24.0N  109.0W 3.5-4.9 BAAAA  Gulf of California         

 

AFRICA AND EUROPE

 

No significant (M>=5) or unusual earthquakes were reported in Europe today.

 

SOUTHWEST PACIFIC

 

O:  5MAY2015 21:19:31   5.7S  153.1E mb=4.8  ANSS   Taron Papua New Guinea       

P:  5MAY2015 88612      6.0S  153.0E 4.0-6.6 AAAAA  New Britain                

 

O:  6MAY2015 01:35:12   6.3S  149.9E mb=5.0  ANSS   Kandrian Papua New Guinea    

P: 29APR2015 88613      7.0S  150.0E 4.0-5.6 CAAAA  New Ireland                 

 

O:  5MAY2015 08:02:47  19.0S  168.9E mb=5.2  ANSS   NNW of Isangel Vanuatu       

P:  3MAY2015 88828     19.0S  168.0E 4.0-5.6 AAAAA  Vanuatu Islands            

 

O:  5MAY2015 23:31:32  22.0S  179.2W mb=4.6  ANSS   Ndoi Island Fiji             

P:  6MAY2015 89122     22.0S  180.0W 4.0-5.4 AAAAA  Tonga Islands              

 

O:  5MAY2015 13:16:42  25.0S  179.8E mb=4.6  ANSS   the Fiji Islands             

O:  5MAY2015 13:10:08  25.1S  179.8E mb=4.7  ANSS   the Fiji Islands             

P:  2MAY2015 88840     23.0S  179.0E 4.0-5.4 BBAAA  Tonga/Fiji                 

 

OCEAN RIDGES

 

No significant (M>=5) or unusual earthquakes were reported on Ocean Ridges today.

 

NEW ZEALAND AND AUSTRALIA REGION

 

O:  5MAY2015 04:13:16  44.5S  168.9E ML=4.0  IGNS   New Zealand                  

P:  5MAY2015 88856     44.0S  168.0E 3.0-4.9 AAAAA  So. Island, N.Z.           

 

GeoNet reported this earthquake was felt with moderate intensity northwest of Wanaka,   South Island, New Zealand. Felt with strong intensity in Queenstown, Mount Barker, Alexandra, Ohai, Invercargill, and Lake Hawea, South Island, New Zealand.

 

O:  5MAY2015 11:34:19  41.4S  173.8E ML=4.1  IGNS   New Zealand                  

P:  5MAY2015 88855     42.0S  172.0E 3.0-4.9 AAAAA  So. Island, N.Z.            

 

GeoNet reported this earthquake was felt with light intensity west of Picton, South Island, New Zealand. Felt with moderate intensity in Takaka, Karamea, Brightwater, Seddon, Tuamarina, Whitby, Wellington, Havelock and many other communites in southern North and northern South Islands, New Zealand. No damage or injuries were reported.

 

JAPAN AND KURIL ISLANDS

 

No earthquakes of M>=4 were located in Japan or the Kuril Islands today.

 

U.S./CANADA*

 

WESTERN U.S./CANADA

 

CALIFORNIA

 

O:  5MAY2015 15:23:08  36.7N  121.4W md=2.1  ANSS   SSW of Ridgemark California  

P: 30APR2015 88689     36.8N  121.3W 2.5-4.8 BAAAA  Central California         

 

O:  5MAY2015 10:55:31  37.7N  121.9W md=2.2  ANSS   ESE of Pleasanton California 

P:  9MAY2015 88960     37.7N  121.9W 2.5-4.5 BAAAA  Central California         

 

NEIC reported this earthquake of M 2.2 in Central California was felt with intensity II-III in the area(s) of Napa and San Jose, California.

 

O:  5MAY2015 21:32:03  38.0N  118.8W md=2.1  ANSS   SE of Bridgeport California  

O:  6MAY2015 03:30:24  38.0N  118.8W md=2.1  ANSS   SE of Bridgeport California  

O:  5MAY2015 19:01:49  38.0N  118.8W md=2.5  ANSS   ESE of Bridgeport California 

P:  4MAY2015 88684     38.2N  118.8W 2.5-4.5 AAAAA  California/Nevada area     

 

O:  5MAY2015 01:52:59  38.0N  122.0W md=2.8  ANSS   SE of Concord California     

P:  9MAY2015 88960     37.7N  121.9W 2.5-4.5 BAAAA  Central California         

 

O:  5MAY2015 14:03:56  39.1N  115.7W ml=3.4  ANSS   NNW of Currant Nevada        

P:  4MAY2015 88739     40.0N  117.9W 2.5-4.7 AABAA  California/Nevada area     

 

O:  5MAY2015 13:47:26  40.0N  122.7W md=2.3  ANSS   Rancho Tehama Reserve Californ

P:  2MAY2015 88694     39.6N  123.4W 2.5-4.4 BAAAA  Central California          

P: 28APR2015 88757     40.0N  123.0W 2.5-4.4 CAAAA  Northern California        

 

O:  5MAY2015 15:02:46  40.3N  124.5W md=3.0  ANSS   SW of Ferndale California    

P:  6MAY2015 89040     40.2N  124.2W 2.5-4.4 AAAAA  Off Coast of No. Calif     

 

 

O:  5MAY2015 05:43:49  34.0N  116.4W ml=2.1  ANSS   Desert Hot Springs California

P:  5MAY2015 88722     34.7N  116.4W 2.5-4.4 AAAAA  So. California             

 

NEIC reported this earthquake of M 2.1 in Southern California was felt with intensity II-III in the area(s) of South Gate, and Desert Hot Springs, California.

 

O:  5MAY2015 15:23:08  36.7N  121.4W md=2.1  ANSS   SSW of Ridgemark California  

P: 30APR2015 88689     36.8N  121.3W 2.5-4.8 BAAAA  Central California         

 

O:  5MAY2015 10:55:31  37.7N  121.9W md=2.2  ANSS   ESE of Pleasanton California 

P:  9MAY2015 88960     37.7N  121.9W 2.5-4.5 BAAAA  Central California         

 

O:  5MAY2015 21:32:03  38.0N  118.8W md=2.1  ANSS   SE of Bridgeport California  

O:  6MAY2015 03:30:24  38.0N  118.8W md=2.1  ANSS   SE of Bridgeport California  

O:  5MAY2015 19:01:49  38.0N  118.8W md=2.5  ANSS   ESE of Bridgeport California 

P:  4MAY2015 88684     38.2N  118.8W 2.5-4.5 AAAAA  California/Nevada area     

 

O:  5MAY2015 01:52:59  38.0N  122.0W md=2.8  ANSS   SE of Concord California     

P:  9MAY2015 88960     37.7N  121.9W 2.5-4.5 BAAAA  Central California         

 

O:  5MAY2015 14:03:56  39.1N  115.7W ml=3.4  ANSS   NNW of Currant Nevada        

P:  4MAY2015 88739     40.0N  117.9W 2.5-4.7 AABAA  California/Nevada area     

 

O:  5MAY2015 13:47:26  40.0N  122.7W md=2.3  ANSS   Rancho Tehama Reserve Californ

P:  2MAY2015 88694     39.6N  123.4W 2.5-4.4 BAAAA  Central California         

P: 28APR2015 88757     40.0N  123.0W 2.5-4.4 CAAAA  Northern California        

 

O:  5MAY2015 15:02:46  40.3N  124.5W md=3.0  ANSS   SW of Ferndale California    

P:  6MAY2015 89040     40.2N  124.2W 2.5-4.4 AAAAA  Off Coast of No. Calif     

 

 

ALASKA

 

O:  6MAY2015 03:27:51  60.1N  152.8W ml=3.2  ANSS   Redoubt Volcano Alaska       

P:  3MAY2015 88798     60.0N  153.5W 3.2-5.0 BAAAA  Central Alaska             

P:  7MAY2015 89079     60.9N  151.1W 3.2-5.0 AAAAA  Central Alaska             

 

O:  6MAY2015 02:09:34  61.2N  150.2W ml=3.0  ANSS   WSW of Anchorage Alaska      

P:  5MAY2015 88801     61.0N  151.4W 3.2-5.0 AAAAA  Central Alaska             

P:  7MAY2015 89079     60.9N  151.1W 3.2-5.0 AAAAA  Central Alaska             

 

PACIFIC NORTHWESTERN U.S./WESTERN CANADA

 

O:  5MAY2015 20:19:57  41.9N  119.6W ml=2.0  ANSS   ESE of Lakeview Oregon       

P:  6MAY2015 89016     41.3N  118.7W 2.5-4.5 AAAAA  California/Nevada area     

 

O:  5MAY2015 21:14:12  44.3N  120.9W md=2.3  ANSS   WSW of Prineville Oregon     

P:  3MAY2015 88764     45.2N  120.1W 2.0-4.3 AAAAA  Oregon state, U.S.         

 

ROCKY MOUNTAINS REGION

 

O:  5MAY2015 09:04:30  35.0N  111.8W ml=3.2  ANSS   N of Sedona Arizona          

P:  5MAY2015 88718     34.7N  111.0W 2.0-4.2 AAAAA  SW U.S.A                   

 

NEIC reported this earthquake of M 3.2 in  Arizona was felt with intensity II-III in the area(s) of Glendale, Sun City, Flagstaff, Prescott Valley, Cornville and Sedona, Arizona.

 

O:  5MAY2015 22:27:13  44.6N  114.3W mc=2.9  ANSS   NW of Challis Idaho          

P:  2MAY2015 88750     44.9N  113.4W 2.0-4.0 BAAAA  Montana/Idaho              

 

O:  5MAY2015 17:21:36  44.7N  111.2W ml=2.1  ANSS   West Yellowstone Montana     

P:  1MAY2015 88776     44.8N  110.9W 2.0-4.0 BAAAA  Yellowstone/Wyoming        

 

O:  5MAY2015 04:05:04  44.7N  112.4W mc=2.2  ANSS   ENE of Lima Montana          

P:  2MAY2015 88750     44.9N  113.4W 2.0-4.0 BAAAA  Montana/Idaho              

 

EASTERN U.S./CANADA

 

Earthquakes in Oklahoma and Kansas were felt today with intensity II-III in Harrah, Oklahoma.

 

O:  5MAY2015 11:07:53  35.5N   97.1W ml=2.7  ANSS   ESE of Harrah Oklahoma       

P:  5MAY2015 88730     35.0N   97.0W 2.0-3.9 AAAAA  Southern Plains            

 

O:  5MAY2015 14:59:19  35.9N   97.4W ml=2.6  ANSS   NNE of Guthrie Oklahoma      

P:  8MAY2015 89005     36.0N   97.0W 2.0-3.9 BAAAA  Southern Plains            

 

O:  5MAY2015 13:30:43  36.4N   97.4W ml=2.7  ANSS   NW of Perry Oklahoma         

O:  5MAY2015 22:03:22  36.5N   99.0W mb=2.7  ANSS   ENE of Mooreland Oklahoma    

P:  6MAY2015 89005     37.0N   98.0W 2.0-3.9 AAAAA  Southern Plains            

 

HAWAII

 

NEIC reported an earthquake of M 2.5 in Hawaii was felt with intensity II-III in the area(s) of Captain Cook, Holualoa, Kailua Kona and Kealakekua, Hawaii.

 

No earthquakes of M>=3 were located in Hawaii.